Three reference points and what they assume
The rise percentages below are three reference points from Tom Cucuzza’s *The Secret of Bulk Fermentation* guide. The guide uses a Tartine-style dough with 90% bread flour and 10% whole wheat in the flour blend, 75% water, 20% starter and 2% salt in its formula. It counts bulk from starter addition and assumes a shaped cold proof of 12–16 hours at about 3°C (37°F). The volume and height marks are calculated examples. [1]
| Dough temperature in the guide | Reference rise | Target from a 400 mL start | Target from a 40 mm start in a straight-sided tub |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27°C / 80°F | 30% | 520 mL | 52 mm |
| 24°C / 75°F | 50% | 600 mL | 60 mm |
| 21°C / 70°F | 75% | 700 mL | 70 mm |
Use the temperatures as the source’s rounded equivalents. The rows describe dough temperature, measured at the dough. Room temperature and mixing-water temperature are useful context, but either can differ considerably from the dough itself. [2]
Why the warmer example uses a lower rise target
Fermentation carries on during shaping and while the dough cools in the fridge. The temperature at the centre takes time to approach fridge temperature. In this method, warmer dough is shaped at a lower measured rise to allow for that carryover. This relationship belongs to the method and its proof conditions. A colder mix, warmer fridge, different starter proportion or room-temperature final proof changes the comparison. [1] [3] [4]
The figures are shaping checkpoints for that formula, so keep the dough’s appearance and feel in the decision. If a recipe specifies a different endpoint, use its method and note what you actually observed. A loaf baked after a room-temperature final proof has a different timeline from one chilled overnight.
Put the mark on your tub
Record the starting volume at the point your recipe uses to begin tracking rise. In a straight-sided container you can also use a consistent starting height.
Target mark = starting reading × (1 + target rise ÷ 100).
For a 450 mL start and a 50% target, multiply 450 by 1.50. Put a mark at 675 mL. If you read 600 mL at a check, the increase is 150 mL on a 450 mL baseline, or about 33%. The number tells you how far the dough has expanded. Check temperature and the recipe’s other cues before deciding to shape.
Use marked volume if your tub flares towards the top. A height change in a widening container can represent a different volume change from the same height difference in a straight-sided one. If you start marking after the first fold, record that starting point. A late baseline can make a full-bulk reference hard to compare. [5]
Two illustrative bakes with the same formula
Imagine two batches of the reference dough, each marked at 400 mL. One is around 24°C (75°F) through the relevant checks and the other around 21°C (70°F). The warm example has a 600 mL reference mark and the cooler example has a 700 mL reference mark, assuming the same shaped cold proof. The readings are illustrative.
At 580 mL, both have risen 45%. The warmer batch is close to its reference mark, so you would check bubbles, aeration and handling against the recipe. The cooler batch has further to go by its reference. Give it time for another observation if it still feels tight. The different marks show why the same percentage can lead to two different next checks.
When to set the chart aside
Use the chart as context if you change the flour blend substantially, use a different amount of starter, move to room-temperature proofing, or miss the original starting measurement. Write down what changed. A second bake with the same formula and method helps you see which observations tend to predict the crumb you want. Review how the dough felt at shaping and how the cooled loaf looked, then change one thing in the next bake.
Crispy Crust’s planned bake log would keep dough temperature and rise next to the recipe stage and photos. That can help you compare two bakes with similar conditions and see why a reference chart worked for one loaf and needed a different interpretation for another.
Take the starting photo straight on with the band visible. At shaping, photograph the container from the same angle and write down both the mark you reached and how the dough handled. After baking, photograph a centre slice once the loaf has cooled. Those three checkpoints give you a comparison even if you decide to change the target on the next bake.
Use the dough rise calculator to convert your own starting measurement and recipe target into a mark.